Monday, September 30, 2019
Owning a Mobile Phone
Owning a mobile phone When I was in the 7 grade, I dreamed of owning my mobile phone. The day I got my mobile phone was one of the happiest days in my life. Owning a mobile phone gave me freedom, cost me money, and made me be careful about the bad effects from mobile phone. Owning a mobile phone made me had the freedom. First of all, I didnââ¬â¢t have to use telephone anymore. Every time I used it to call my friends, my paren't looked at me really strange, they seemed unpleasant. Moreover, they were always worried about a person who called to me and the person whom I talked to. Second, I donââ¬â¢t need to borrow my friend mobile phone.I was really embarrassed every time when I asked for his phone. With my own mobile phone I can communicate to my friends no matter what or where I am. For instance, I can easily contact to my friends by calling or sending messages everywhere. I had to pay for the mobile phone and related expenses. A phone with many features and capabilities can be expensive. I had considered about size, battery life, price, internet access and other features. Finally, I had to pay about 14,000 baht for my mobile phone. Moreover, a mobile phone cost a few to maintain such as screen protector, battery, battery charger and fixed if necessary.Of course, I had monthly phone bill. Mobile phone expenses can be controlled in limit budget. I look at my current phone bill and see how Iââ¬â¢m using my phone. How many minutes do I use a month? Am I a big texter? So, I choose the properly package and control myself in limit budget. When I have to pay for my mobile phone, I became a more careful consumer. I became worried about the bad effects from mobile phone. Using a lot mobile phone can harm my brain. If I use mobile phones too much, I will get bad effects like dizzy, blood-brain barrier, or ears problems. In addition, when I use mobile phones while I am driving, I might get an accident.It is essential not good for me and others. Moreover, ââ¬Å"r adiations emitted from the phone are dead harmful for the eardrumâ⬠, has proved by many scientist. Owning a mobile phone gave me freedom, but it gave me responsibilities and worries, too. Even with the stress of monthly phone bill and mobile maintenance but I would never give up my mobile phone. Furthermore, my fear of using a lot mobile phone can harm my brain cannot keep me from the joy my mobile phone. I am really happy to use it properly and sensibly, mobile phone is one of a wonderful piece of utility in my life.
Sunday, September 29, 2019
The Great Trade Collapse: What Caused It and What Does It Mean
The great trade collapse: What caused it and what does it mean? Richard Baldwin 27 November 2009 World trade experienced a sudden, severe, and synchronised collapse in late 2008 ââ¬â the sharpest in recorded history and deepest since WWII. This ebook ââ¬â written for the world's trade ministers gathering for the WTO's Trade Ministerial in Geneva ââ¬â presents the economics profession's received wisdom on the collapse. Two dozen chapters, written by leading economists from across the globe, summarise the latest research on the causes of the collapse as well as its consequences and the prospects for recovery.According to the emerging consensus, the collapse was caused by the sudden, severe and globally synchronised postponement of purchases, especially of durable consumer and investment goods (and their parts and components). The impact was amplified by ââ¬Å"compositionalâ⬠and ââ¬Å"synchronicityâ⬠effects in which international supply chains played a central role. The ââ¬Å"great trade collapseâ⬠occurred between the third quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of 2009. Signs are that it has ended and recovery has begun, but it was huge ââ¬â the steepest fall of world trade in recorded history and the deepest fall since the Great Depression.The drop was sudden, severe, and synchronised. A few facts justify the label: The Great Trade Collapse. It was severe and sudden Global trade has dropped before ââ¬â three times since WWII ââ¬â but this is by far the largest. As Figure 1 shows, global trade fell for at least three quarters during three of the worldwide recessions that have occurred since 1965 ââ¬â the oil-shock recession of 1974-75, the inflation-defeating recession of 1982-83, and the Tech-Wreck recession of 2001-02.Specifically: â⬠¢The 1982 and 2001 drops were comparatively mild, with growth from the previous yearââ¬â¢s quarter reaching -5% at the most. â⬠¢The 1970s event was twice that size, with g rowth stumbling to -11%. â⬠¢Today collapse is much worse; for two quarters in a row, world trade flows have been 15% below their previous year levels. The OECD has monthly data on its membersââ¬â¢ real trade for the past 533 months; the 7 biggest month-on-month drops among the 533 all occurred since November 2008 (see the chapter by Sonia Araujo and Joaquim Oliveira).Figure 1 The great trade collapses in historical perspective, 1965 ââ¬â 2009 Source: OECD Quarterly real trade data. The great trade collapse is not as large as that of the Great Depression, but it is much steeper. It took 24 months in the Great Depression for world trade to fall as far as it fell in the 9 months from November 2008 (Figure 2). The latest data in the figure (still somewhat preliminary) suggests a recovery is underway. Figure 2 The great trade collapses vs. the Great Depression Source: Eichengreen and Oââ¬â¢Rourke (2009), based on CPB online data for latest.It was synchronised â⬠¢All 104 nations on which the WTO reports data experienced a drop in both imports and exports during the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009. â⬠¢Figure 3 shows how imports and exports collapsed for the EU27 and 10 other nations that together account for three-quarters of world trade; each of these trade flows dropped by more than 20% from 2008Q2 to 2009Q2; many fell 30% or more. Figure 3 The great trade collapse, 2008 Q2 to 2009 Q2 Sources: WTO online database.Figure 4 shows that world trade in almost all product categories were positive in 2008Q2, almost all were negative in 2008Q4, and all where negative in 2009Q1. The categories most marked by international supply chains (Mechanical and electrical machinery, Precision instruments, and Vehicles) saw some of the biggest drops, and detailed empirics in the chapter by Bems, Johnson and Yi finds that supply chains were hit harder controlling for other factors. The chart, however, shows that the falls were by no means extraordin ary large in these sectors.Figure 4 All types of goods trade collapsed simultaneously Source: Comtrade database. Manufactures and commodities Trade collapsed across the board, but it is important to distinguish between commodities and manufactures. The collapse in minerals and oil trade started from a boom time and fell faster than total trade (Figure 5). The reason was prices. Food, materials and especially oil experienced a steep run up in price in early 2008; the boom ended in mid 2008 ââ¬â well before the September 2008 Lehmanââ¬â¢s debacle. The price of manufactures, by contrast, was rather steady in this period (Figure 6).Figure 5 The great trade collapse and values: Food, oil, and manufactures Source: ITC online database. Since food, fuels, and raw materials make up about a quarter of global trade, these price movements had a big impact on aggregate trade figures. Countries dependent on commodity exports, in particular oil exporters, were among those that experienced t he greatest drop in exports (see the chapters Africa by Peter Draper and Gilberto Biacuana, and by Leonce Ndikumana and Tonia Kandiero, and on India by Rajiv Kumar and Dony Alex).The drop in manufactures trade was also massive, but it involved mostly quantity reductions. Exporters specialising in durable goods manufactures saw a particularly sharp decline in their exports (see chapters on Japan by Ruyhei Wakasugi and by Kiyoyasu Tanaka). Mexico, which is both an oil exporter and a participant in the USââ¬â¢s manufacturing supply chain, experienced one of the worldââ¬â¢s most severe trade slumps (see chapter by Ray Robertson). Figure 6 The great trade collapse and prices: Commodity vs. manufactures Source: CPB online database. CausesThe great trade collapse was triggered by ââ¬â and helped spread ââ¬â the global economic slump that has come to be called ââ¬Å"The Great Recession. 1 As the left panel of Figure 7 shows, the OECD nations slipped into recession in this per iod, with the largest importing markets ââ¬â the US, EU and Japan (the G3) ââ¬â seeing their GDP growth plummet more or less in synch. The US and Europe saw negative GDP growth rates of 3 to 4%; Japan was hit far worse. Figure 7 The current recession, OECD nations and G3, 2007Q1 ââ¬â 2009Q2 Note: G3 is US, EU and Japan. Source: OECD online data base.Why did trade fall so much more than GDP? Given the global recession, a drop in global trade is unsurprising. The question is: Why was it so big? The chapter by Caroline Freund shows that during the four large, postwar recessions (1975, 1982, 1991, and 2001) world trade dropped 4. 8 times more than GDP (also see Freund 2009). This time the drop was far, far larger. From a historical perspective (Figure 8), the drop is astonishing. The figure shows the trade-to-GDP ratio rising steeply in the late 1990s, before stagnating in the new century right up to the great trade collapse in 2008.The rise in the 1990s is explained by a nu mber of factors including trade liberalisation. A key driver, however, was the establishment of international supply chains (manufacturing was geographically unbundled with various slices of the value-added process being placed in nearby nations). This unbundling meant that the same value-added crossed borders several times. In a simple international supply chain, imported parts would be transformed into exported components which were in turn assembled into final goods and exported again, so the trade figures counted the final value added several times.As we shall see, the presences of these highly integrated and tightly synchronised production networks plays an important role in the nature of the great trade collapse (see chapters by Rudolfs Bems, Robert Johnson, and Kei-Mu Yi, and by Andrei Levchenko, Logan Lewis, and Linda Tesar). Figure 8 World trade to world GDP ratio, 1980Q1 to 2009Q2 Source: World imports from OECD online data base; World GDP based on IMF data. Emerging conse nsus on the causes Economists around the world have been working hard to understand the causes of this unusually large and abrupt shut down of international trade.The dozen chapters in Part II of this book summarise all the key research ââ¬â most of it done by the authors themselves. They do not all agree on all points, but a consensus is emerging. When sales drop sharply ââ¬â and the great trade collapse was a gigantic drop in international sales ââ¬â economists look for demand shocks and/or supply shocks. The emerging consensus is that the great trade collapse was mostly a demand shock ââ¬â although supply side factors played some role. The demand shock operated through two distinct but mutually reinforcing channels: â⬠¢Commodity prices ââ¬â which tumbled when the rice bubble burst in mid 2008 ââ¬â continued to follow world demand in its downward spiral. The price movements and diminished demand sent the value and volume of commodities trade diving. â⠬ ¢The production and exports of manufacturing collapsed as the Lehmanââ¬â¢s-induced shock-and-awe caused consumers and firms to wait and see; private demand for all manner of ââ¬Ëpostpone-ableââ¬â¢ consumption crashed. This second point was greatly amplified by the very particular nature of the demand shock that hit the worldââ¬â¢s economy in September 2008. Why so big? This consensus view, however, is incomplete.It raises the question: If the trade drop was demand driven, why was the trade drop so much larger than the GDP drop? The answer provided by the emerging consensus is that the nature of the demand shock interacted with ââ¬Å"compositionalâ⬠and ââ¬Å"synchronicityâ⬠effects to greatly exaggerate the movement of the trade-to-GDP ratio. Compositional effect The compositional effect turns on the peculiar nature of the demand shock. The demand shock was very large, but also focused on a narrow range of domestic value-added activities ââ¬â the produ ction of ââ¬Å"postponeableâ⬠goods, consumer durables and investment goods.This demand drop immediately, reducing demand for all related intermediate inputs (parts and components, chemicals, steel, etc). The compositional-effect argument is founded on the fact that postponeables make up a narrow slice of world GDP, but a very large slice of the world trade (Figure 9). In a nutshell, the common cause of the GDP and trade collapse ââ¬â a sudden drop in the demand for postponeables ââ¬â operated with full force on trade but diminished force on GDP due to the compositional difference.The large demand shock applied to the near-totality of trade while only applying to a thin portion of GDP. Here is a simple example. 2 Suppose exports consisted of 90% ââ¬Å"postponeableâ⬠(consumer and investment electronics, transport equipment, machinery and their parts and components). GDP, however, consists most of non-tradeables (services, etc). Taking postponeablesââ¬â¢ share in US GDP to be 20%, the pre-crisis situation is: When the sales of postponeables slumps by, say, half, the numerator falls much more than the denominator.Assuming that â⬠otherâ⬠continues growth in trade and GDP by 2%, the post-crisis trade to GDP ratio is Exports have fallen 44. 8% in this example, while GDP has fallen only 8. 4%. In short, the different composition of trade and GDP, taken together with the specific nature of the demand shock, has resulted in trade falling more than 5 times as fast as GDP. See the chapter by Andrei Levchenko, Logan Lewis, and Linda Tesar for a careful investigation of this logic using detailed US production and trade data; they find that the compositional effect accounts for most of the US trade drop.The chapter by Joseph Francois and Julia Woerz uses US and Chinese data to argue that the compositional effect is key to understanding the trade collapse. 3 Figure 9 Composition of world goods trade Source: WTO online database for 2007. Sync hronicity effect The synchronicity effect helps explain why the great trade collapse was so great in an even more direct manner; almost every nationââ¬â¢s imports and exports fell at the same time. There was none of the averaging out that occurred in the three other postwar trade drops. But why was it so synchronised?There are two leading explanations for the remarkable synchronicity. The first concerns international supply chains, the second concerns the ultimate cause of the Great Recession. The profound internationalisation of the supply chain that has occurred since the 1980s ââ¬â specifically, the just-in-time nature of these vertically integrated production networks ââ¬â served to coordinate, i. e. rapidly transmit, demand shocks. Even a decade ago, a drop in consumer sales in the US or Europe took months to be transmitted back to the factories and even longer to reach the suppliers of those factories.Today, Factory Asia is online. Hesitation by US and European cons umers is transmitted almost instantly to the entire supply chain, which reacts almost instantly by producing and buying less; trade drops in synch, both imports and exports. For example, during the 2001 trade collapse, monthly data for 52 nations shows that 39% of the month-nation pairs had negative growth for both imports and exports. In the 2008 crisis the figure is 83%. For details on this point, see Di Giovanni, Julian and Andrei Levchenko (2009), Yi (2009), and the chapters by Rudolfs Bems, Robert Johnson, and Kei-Mu Yi, and by Kiyoyasu Tanaka.The second explanation requires a bit of background and a bit of conjecture (macroeconomists have not arrived at a consensus on the causes of the Great Recession). To understand the global shock to the demand for traded goods, we need a thumbnail sketch of the global crisis. How the subprime crisis became the global crisis The ââ¬Å"Subprime Crisisâ⬠broke out in August 2007. For 13 months, the world viewed this as a financial crisi s that was mainly restricted to the G7 nations who had mismanaged their monetary and regulatory policy ââ¬â especially the US and the UK.Figure 3 shows that world trade continued growing apace in 2007 and early 2008. The crisis metastasised from the ââ¬Å"Subprime Crisisâ⬠to the global crisis in September 2008. The defining moment came when the US Treasury allowed the investment bank Lehman Brothers to go bankrupt. This shocked the global financial community since they had assumed no major financial institution would be allowed to go under. Many of the remaining financial institutions were essentially bankrupt in an accounting sense, so no one knew who might be next. Bankers stopped lending to each other and credit markets froze.The Lehman bankruptcy, however, was just one of a half dozen ââ¬Å"impossible eventsâ⬠that occurred at this time. Here is a short list of others:4 â⬠¢All big investment banks disappeared. â⬠¢The US Fed lent $85 billion to an insuran ce company (AIG), borrowing money from the US Treasury to cover the loan. â⬠¢A US money market fund lost so much that it could not repay its depositors capital. â⬠¢US Treasury Secretary Paulson asked the US Congress for three-quarters of a trillion dollars based on a 3-page proposal; he had difficulties in answering direct questions about how the money would fix the problem. The hereto laissez-faire US Securities and Exchange Commission banned short selling of bank stocks to slow the drop in financial institutions stock prices. It didnââ¬â¢t work. â⬠¢Daniel Gros and Stephano Micossi (2009) pointed out that European banks were too big to fail and too big to save (their assets were often multiples of the their home nationsââ¬â¢ GDPs); â⬠¢Congress said ââ¬Å"noâ⬠to Paulsonââ¬â¢s ill-explained plan, promising its own version. As people around the world watched this unsteady and ill-explained behaviour of the US government, a massive feeling of insecurity formed.Extensive research in behavioural economics shows that people tend to act in extremely risk averse ways when gripped by fears of the unknown (as opposed to when they are faced with risk, as in a game of cards, where all outcomes can be enumerated and assigned a probability). Fall 2008 was a time when people really had no idea what might happen. This is Ricardo Caballeroââ¬â¢s hypothesis of ââ¬Å"Knightian Uncertaintyâ⬠(i. e. the fear of the unknown) which has been endorsed by the IMFââ¬â¢s chief economist Olivier Blanchard. Consumers, firms, and investors around the world decided to ââ¬Å"wait and seeâ⬠ââ¬â to hold off on postponeable purchases and investments until they could determine how bad things would get. The delaying of purchases and investments, the redressing of balance sheets and the switching of wealth to the safest assets caused what Caballero has called ââ¬Å"sudden financial arrestâ⬠(a conscious reference to the usually fatal medi cal condition ââ¬Å"sudden cardiac arrestâ⬠). The ââ¬Å"fear factorâ⬠spread across the globe at internet speed. Consumers, firms and investors all feared that theyââ¬â¢d find out what capitalism without the capital would be like.They independently, but simultaneously decided to shelf plans for buying durable consumer and investment goods and indeed anything that could be postponed, including expensive holidays and leisure travel. In previous episodes of declining world trade, there was no Lehman-like event to synchronise the wait-and-see stance on a global scale. The key points as concerns the trade and GDP collapse: â⬠¢As the fear factor was propagating via the electronic press; the transmission was global and instantaneous. â⬠¢The demand shock to GDP and the demand shock to trade occurred simultaneously. ââ¬Å"Postponeableâ⬠sector production and trade were hit first and hardest. There are a number of indications that this is the right story. First, g lobal trade in services did not, in general, collapse (see the chapter by Aditya Mattoo and Ingo Borchert). Interestingly, one of the few categories of services trade that did collapse was tourism ââ¬â the ultimate postponeable. Second, macroeconomistsââ¬â¢ investigations into the transmission mechanisms operating in this crisis show that none of the usual transmission vectors ââ¬â trade in goods, international capital flows, and financial crisis contagion ââ¬â were esponsible for the synchronisation of the global income drop (Rose and Spiegel 2009). Supply-side effects The Lehman-link ââ¬Å"sudden financial arrestâ⬠froze global credit markets and spilled over on the specialized financial instruments that help grease the gears of international trade ââ¬â letters of credit and the like. From the earliest days of the great trade collapse, analysts suspected that a lack of trade-credit financing was a contributing factor (Auboin 2009). As the chapter by Jesse Mora and William Powers argues, such supply-side shocks have been important in the past.Careful research on the 1997 Asian crisis (Amiti and Weinstein 2009) and historical bank crises (see the chapter by Leonardo Iacovone and Veronika Zavacka) provide convincing evidence that credit conditions can affect trade flows. The Mora and Powers chapter, however, finds that declines in global trade finance have not had a major impact on trade flows. While global credit markets in general did freeze up, trade finance declined only moderately in most cases. If anything, US cross-border bank financing bounced back earlier than bank financing from other sources.In short, trade financing had at most a moderate role in reducing global trade. Internationalised supply chains are a second potential source of supply shocks. One could imagine that a big drop in demand combined with deteriorating credit conditions might produce widespread bankruptcies among trading firms. Since the supply chain is a cha in, bankruptcy of even a few links could suppress trade along the whole chain. The chapters by Peter Schott (on US data), by Lionel Fontagne and Guillaume Gaulier (on French data), and by Ruyhei Wakasugi (on Japanese data) present evidence that such disruptions did not occur this time.They do this by looking at very disaggregated data (firm-level data in the Fontagne-Gaulier chapter) and distinguishing between the so-called ââ¬Å"intensiveâ⬠and ââ¬Å"extensiveâ⬠margins of trade. These margins decompose changes in trade flows into changes in sales across existing trade relations (intensive) and changes in the number of such relations (extensive). If the supply-chain-disruption story were an important part of the great trade collapse, these authors should have found that the extensive margin was important.The authors, however, find that the great trade collapse has been primarily driven by the intensive margin ââ¬â by changes in pre-existing trade relationships. Trad e fell because firms sold less of products that they were already selling; there was very little destruction of trade relationships as would be the case if the extensive margin had been found to be important. This findings may be due to the notion of â⬠hysteresis in tradeâ⬠(Baldwin 1988), namely, that large and sunk market-entry costs imply that firms are reluctant to exit markets in the face of temporary shocks.Instead of exiting, they merely scale back their operations, waiting for better times. Protectionism is the final supply shock commonly broached as a cause of the great trade collapse. The chapter by Simon Evenett documents the rise in crisis-linked protectionist measures. While many measures have been put in place ââ¬â on average, one G20 government has broken its no-protection pledge every other day since November 2008 ââ¬â they do not yet cover a substantial fraction of world trade. Protection, in short, has not been a major cause of the trade collapse so far.Prospects The suddenness of the 2008 trade drop holds out the hope of an equally sudden recovery. If the fear-factor-demand-drop was the driver of the great trade collapse, a confidence-factor-demand-revival could equally drive a rapid restoration of trade to robust growth. If it was all a demand problem, after all, little long-lasting damage will have been done. See the chapter by Ruyhei Wakasugi on this. There are clear signs that trade is recovering, and it is absolutely clear that the drop has halted. Will the trade revival continue?No one can know the future path of global economic recovery ââ¬â and this is the key to the trade recovery. It is useful nonetheless to think of the global economic crisis as consisting of two very different crises: a banking-and-balance-sheet crisis in the over-indebted advanced nations (especially the US and UK), on one hand, and an expectations-crisis in most of the rest of the world on the other hand. In the US, UK and some other G7 na tions, the damage done by the bursting subprime bubble is still being felt.Their financial systems are still under severe strain. Bank lending is sluggish and corporate-debt issuances are problematic. Extraordinary direct interventions by central banks in the capital markets are underpinning the economic recovery. For these nations, the crisis ââ¬â specifically the Subprime Crisis ââ¬â has caused lasting damage. Banks, firms and individuals who over-leveraged during what they thought was the â⬠great moderationâ⬠are now holding back on consumption and investment in an attempt to redress their balance sheets (Bean 2009).This could play itself out like the lost decade Japan experienced in the 1990s (Leijonhufvud 2009, Kobayashi 2008); also see the chapter by Michael Ferrantino and Aimee Larsen. For most nations in the world, however, this is not a financial crisis ââ¬â it is a trade crisis. Many have reacted by instituting fiscal stimuli of historic proportions, but their banks and consumers are in relatively good shape, having avoided the overleveraging in the post tech-wreck period (2001-2007) that afflicted many of the G7 economies.The critical question is whether the damage to the G7ââ¬â¢s financial systems will prevent a rapid recovery of demand and a restoration of confidence that will re-start the investment engine. In absence of a crystal ball, the chapter by Baldwin and Taglioni undertakes simple simulations that assume trade this time recovers at the pace it did in the past three global trade contractions (1974, 1982 and 2001). In those episodes, trade recovered to its pre-crisis path 2 to 4 quarters after the nadir.Assuming that 2009Q2 was the bottom of the great trade collapse ââ¬â again an assumption that would require a crystal ball to confirm ââ¬â this means trade would be back on track by mid 2010. Forecasts are never better than the assumptions on which they are built, so such calculations must be viewed as what- if scenarios rather than serious forecasts. Implications What does the great trade collapse mean for the world economy? The authors of this Ebook present a remarkable consensus on this.Three points are repeatedly stressed: â⬠¢Global trade imbalances are a problem that needs to be tackled. One group of authors (see the chapters by Fred Bergsten, by Anne Krueger, and by Jeff Frieden) sees them as one the root causes of the Subprime Crisis. They worry that allowing them to continue is setting up the world for another global economic crisis. Fred Bergsten in particular argues that the US must get its federal budget deficit in order to avoid laying the carpet for the next crisis.Another group points to the combination of Asian trade surpluses and persistent high unemployment in the US and Europe as a source of protectionist pressures (see the chapters by Caroline Freund, by Simon Evenett, and by Richard Baldwin and Daria Taglioni). The chapter by Oââ¬â¢Rourke notes that avoiding a protectionist backlash will require that the slump ends soon, and that severe exchange rate misalignments at a time of rising unemployment are avoided. â⬠¢Governments should guard against compliancy in their vigil against protectionism.Most authors mention the point that while new protectionism to date has had a modest trade effect, things need not stay that way. The chapter by Simon Evenett is particularly clear on this point. There is much work to be done before economists fully understand the great trade collapse, but the chapters in this Ebook constitute a first draft of the consensus that will undoubtedly emerge from the pages of scientific journals in two or three yearsââ¬â¢ time. Footnotes 1 See Di Giovanni and Levchenko (2009) for evidence on how the shock was transmitted via international production networks. This is drawn from Baldwin and Taglioni (2009). 3 Jon Eaton, Sam Kortum, Brent Neiman and John Romalis make similar arguments with data from many nations in an unpublished manuscript dated October 2009. 4 See the excellent timeline of the crisis by the New York Fed. 5 Caballero (2009a, b) and Blanchard (2009). References Auboin, Marc (2009). ââ¬Å"The challenges of trade financingâ⬠, VoxEU. org, 28 January 2009. Baldwin, Richard (1988). ââ¬Å"Hysteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effectâ⬠, American Economic Review, 78, 4, pp 773-785, 1988.Baldwin, Richard and Daria Taglioni (2009). ââ¬Å"The illusion of improving global imbalancesâ⬠, VoxEU. org, 14 November 2009. Bean, Charles (2009). ââ¬Å"The Great Moderation, the Great Panic and the Great Contractionâ⬠, Schumpeter Lecture, European Economic Association, Barcelona, 25 August 2009. Blanchard, Olivier (2009). ââ¬Å"(Nearly) nothing to fear but fear itselfâ⬠, Economics Focus column, The Economist print edition, 29 January 2009. Caballero, Ricardo (2009a). ââ¬Å"A global perspective on the great financial insurance run: Causes, consequences, and solutions (Part 2)â⬠, VoxEU. rg, 23 January 2009. Caballero, Ricardo (2009b). ââ¬Å"Sudden financial arrestâ⬠, VoxEU. org, 17 November 2009. Di Giovanni, Julian and Andrei Levchenko (2009). â⬠International trade, vertical production linkages, and the transmission of shocksâ⬠, VoxEU. org, 11 November 2009.Freund, Caroline (2009a). ââ¬Å"The Trade Response to Global Crises: Historical Evidenceâ⬠, World Bank working paper. Gros, Daniel and Stefano Micossi (2009). ââ¬Å"The beginning of the end gameâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ , VoxEU. org, 20 September 2008. Kobayashi, Keiichiro (2008). Financial crisis management: Lessons from Japanââ¬â¢s failureâ⬠, VoxEU. org, 27 October 2008. Leijonhufvud, Axel (2009). ââ¬Å"No ordinary recessionâ⬠, VoxEU. org, 13 February 2009. Rose, Andrew and Mark Spiegel (2009). ââ¬Å"Searching for international contagion in the 2008 financial crisisâ⬠, VoxEU. org, 3 October 2009. Yi, Kei-Mu (2009), ââ¬Å"The collapse of global trade: Th e role of vertical specialisationâ⬠, in Baldwin and Evenett (eds), The collapse of global trade, murky protectionism, and the crisis: Recommendations for the G20, a VoxEU publication.
Saturday, September 28, 2019
Human Resource in Coffee Masters Company Assignment
Human Resource in Coffee Masters Company - Assignment Example Between this major entity and the minimal waged consumer, there are untapped resources in form of reaching out to these menial waged consumers (Edgar & Fiona 45). Coffee Masters have an objective of offering the quality coffee at a much lower price. Additionally, the organization has branches in suburbs which hold a significant number of people in its target market. Also in its objectives, the organization aims at using the human labor of the locals to fuel the activities in the organization. To aid in this the organization has a total of 100 employees in all its branches. Each branch has an internal staff, 30 members. The rest of the employees are involved other activities like marketing, sales, logistics, branch supervisors and the organization has a large transport system which has a significant number of employees depending on the size of the branchââ¬â¢s logistics activity (Turner, 76). The organization is controlled by a management team located at the main branch of the organization. Additionally, the organization has employed human resources representatives at each branch. The HR rationale in this organization involves minimal contact between the employees and the main management team. The management team greatly relies on the operations of branch supervisors as the human resource representatives. In this particular organizational setting, the human resource is a simple arrangement with three levels. The top level of human resource management in this setting is the top management team. The team is led by the founders of the enterprise who carry out the task of decision making and approving recommendations (Fielding 89). From the CEOs, the organization has branch managers as the second in command. The branch managers run the branches under strict instructions from the CEOs. Below the branch managers lie the other staff members with the highest ranked staff member being a branch supervisor. Inà à terms of human resource management, the organization has an HR manager who has the responsibility of hiring and terminating employment contracts.
Friday, September 27, 2019
Bariatric Surgery Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3750 words
Bariatric Surgery - Research Paper Example Firstly, according to Padwal et al., bariatric surgery is the solution to the treatment of type 2 diabetes that occurs in conjunction with obesity when all other methods have failed to produce positive results. It has been evidenced that some individuals that undergo the procedure with high blood sugar levels recover within days to weeks after the surgery. Buchwald et al. demonstrated the applicability of bariatric surgery in the treatment of Type 2 diabetes in a case whereby all other medication approaches had failed to produce results. Secondly, the area of study chosen for this study is in Australia whereby the members of the public have raised a lot of concern about the reasons as to why patients with obesity and diabetes type 2 have to spend the rest of their lives in healthcare centres in addition to facing unstoppable deaths either from the two conditions or from other conditions associated with obesity. This particular study will, therefore, bring into practice a therapeutic procedure known as bariatric surgery into practice, whose outcomes are desirable with reduced times of stay in the hospital and also associated with little chances of hospital re-admission. Pharmacotherapy is also advisable, but it has its own risks of adverse effects hence should only be administered if the benefit is worth the risk. Obesity is as serious as any other chronic disease hence partnership between the patient with the high motivation of recovering and committed health practitioners is essential.
Thursday, September 26, 2019
Articles annotation Annotated Bibliography Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words
Articles annotation - Annotated Bibliography Example The results indicate that ââ¬Å"within the EFL context in the current Chinese cultural environment, integration may not be a significant factor in motivating language learning effortâ⬠(Chen, Warden, & Chang, 2005, p. 622). The importance of incorporating cultural norms and values in the motivational process is deemed crucial for these factors to work and be considered effective in the given situation. The study conducted by Yihong, et.al. (2007) enumerated seven motivation types: ââ¬Å"intrinsic interest, immediate achievement, individual development, information medium, going abroad, social responsibility, and learning situation (p. 133) where ââ¬Å"intrinsic interest was correlated with productive and additive changes, individual development with self-confidence change, social responsibility with productive and split changesâ⬠(Yihong, Yuan, Ying, & Yan, 2007, p. 133). The value of the authorââ¬â¢s findings is emphasized in terms of focusing both on the language and the learner to enhance the learning process. positive attitudes toward the language and expectations of success were maintained over the period, whereas their attitudes toward the experience of formal learning tended to deteriorateâ⬠(Lamb, 2008, p. 1). Several teaching interventions were suggested such as provision of simpler examples, giving positive feedback, and encouraging students to explore other alternative possibilities to enhance learning skills in the English
Wednesday, September 25, 2019
The relationship between cancer disease and nutrition Article
The relationship between cancer disease and nutrition - Article Example The alterations in these markers are a potential risk for cardiovascular diseases and cancer. This study seeks to investigate on the long-term effect of low carbohydrate scores on incidence of cancer in a prospective cohort study. The researchers used a population-based prospective cohort health intervention comprising of residents of the northern Swedish country of Vasterbotten age group 40 to 60 years. The secondary data was obtained from an ongoing intervention programme that determined number of potential health risk factors using a participant administered diet and lifestyle questionnaire. In this study the recruitment was about59% (Nilsson, Lena et. al, 2013). A 24hr hour recall validated food frequency questionnaire was administered and a blood sample for biomarkers analysis in the study participants. Prospective cancer cases were identified through a regional cancer registry. The researchers used a Cox regression analyses on low-carbohydrate high protein score and explored the role of metabolic risk profile, micronutrient levels and adequacy of energy intake on health. There was a positive correlation between protein (primarily animal sources) and fat (both saturated and unsaturated) intake with increasing low carbohydrate high protein (LCHP) scores (Nilsson, Lena et. al, 2013). However, there was no correlation between LCHP scores and cancer incidences except for non-dose dependent respiratory tract cancer in men. The study reported an inversely association between the risk for colorectal cancer and intake of high saturated fat in women. Interestingly this association was positive in men (Nilsson, Lena et. al, 2013). This study provided vital information on safety of increase in protein and reduction in carbohydrates. For determination of carbohydrate limitation effects further studies encircling a variety
Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Spouse Abuse Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words
Spouse Abuse - Essay Example Definition. Battered Woman Syndrome (BWS) is a variation of the self-defense claim in assault and murder cases where a woman asserts an affirmative defense based on her psychological state as the result of a pattern of abuse by her batterer. BWS seeks to justify a woman's criminal conduct as excusable due to a diminished mental capacity combined with an understandably urgent need to end the abuse. Standard Self-Defense Claim. In a traditional self-defense claim, the accused has the burden to show that they were in fear for their life, in imminent danger of physical harm, and had no recourse but to respond with reasonable, even deadly, force. This differs from BWS in that the former is based upon the facts surrounding a single event and the latter is predicated upon a psychological condition caused by extended abuse. In BWS, the accused is not required to demonstrate that, at the moment of the criminal activity, she was in immediate danger. Her proactive violence against her batterer, which would otherwise be inconsistent with the perilous situation-derived self-defense claim, does not have to be undertaken at the moment of suffering actual harm. Argument for BWS. A victim of habitual assaults over the course of time is viewed in a sympathetic light by a judge or jury. While her actions may not be within the letter of the law, they are understandable when presented as the result of a diminished psychological state brought on by repeated abuse. Any human being, be they judge or juror, can identify with the drive to commit a violent act to escape an abusive situation. No reasonable person wants to punish a woman who has endured physical abuse over the course of months or years just because she chose to end that abuse by assaulting her attacker when he was asleep, for example, and not posing an immediate danger to her at the moment. Surely, if given the chance, he would likely pose a threat in the future and her actions seem appropriate. Argument against BWS. Where BWS is flawed as a legal defense is within the scope of its analysis and the absence of empirical diagnosis. A BWS defense focuses solely on the state of mind of the abuse victim where she, while not in imminent danger, chooses to engage in an otherwise criminal act. This requires a judge or jury to suspend consideration of all the facts of the matter, as well as any available non-violent remedies to an abused woman, and accept that her state of mind would not permit her to escape the situation while it simultaneously allowed her to attack her attacker when he wasn't being abusive. Further, there is no definitive medical or psychological protocol to determine BWS, especially in self-reporters of abuse, making it impossible to obtain a sure diagnosis of the condition that can be proven beyond a reasonable doubt. My Position. I believe the BWS is a valid defense. Even though it may be hard to diagnose as a psychological impairment, the fact is that any woman who has endured sustained physical abuse could exercise a traditional self-defense claim if she acted in the moment. The fact that she chose to wait until she was not being attacked before taking action does not mitigate the obvious; she would be battered again and the state of mind created by continued abuse should be considered when she comes before a court of law.
Monday, September 23, 2019
Globalisation,Multinational Enterprises(MNEs) and Free Trade Essay
Globalisation,Multinational Enterprises(MNEs) and Free Trade - Essay Example Global integration is facilitated by the existence of a global infrastructure that fosters easy communication and transportation of labour and products. This plays a critical role in creating a borderless society, which reduces the world into a village. In addition, connectivity reduces the time spent in the production of goods and services, which ensures efficiency among manufacturing industries. Under globalization, international bodies such as the European Union provide guidelines to govern economic activities among member states. Globalization is associated with increased economic growth where nations are open to new opportunities for trade and investments. Integration fosters the removal of barriers such as trade restrictions, quotas and tariffs, which attracts economic stimulation through economic drives. In this sense, new markets emerge in countries of interest with services such as banking, transport and insurance being established. Similarly, globalization encourages efficiency in business thus lowering national barriers to trade and investments. Advances in manufacturing technology as well as in communication facilitate efficiency. The internet provides an effective mode of communication such as email and video conferencing, which bridges geographical barriers and facilitates efficiency. Integration is governed by rules and regulations, which ensure democracy and rights of the citizens are upheld. An increase economic success is associated with improving living standards among citizens in the country. However, globalization also has negative impacts to the society relating to loss of autonomy, which leads to harmonization of standards between nations. In the same manner, international bodies take precedence over national bodies where economic activities are supervised by multinational institutions such as World Trade Organization, International
Sunday, September 22, 2019
Nature Versus Nurture Essay Example for Free
Nature Versus Nurture Essay Nature versus Nurture The nature versus nurture debate has been one that has been around for centuries. This debate was spawned from the idea that nature and nurture are both pieces of the human puzzle. Are we as humans shaped because of our genes only or are we influenced by our peers and environment? The opinion of this writer is that a person is who he or she is based on both principals of nature and nurture. Personal Thoughts My thoughts on nature and nurture have never been explored until now. I have always assumed that I am who I am because God made me this way. Now that I have learned a bit more about this debate, I find that I am a product of both nature and nurture. I am tall, have brown hair, wear glasses, and speak with a country accent because of my gene structure given to me by my parents. The way that I act and my thought processes come from influences in my environment and the teachings of my family. ââ¬Å"We are a product of nature and nurture, but we are also an open systemâ⬠(Myers, pg. 167). This means that even though genes and culture are influences in a personââ¬â¢s overall structure, a person can defy each. For example, as a teenager, I was always pressured to go with the crowd and conform to their ways of thinking and acting. I wanted so badly to fit in and found it difficult because I was tall, lanky, and had acne which was all given to me by my nature or genetic structure. Growing up in a smaller town, teenage drinking was a pressure of my social group and while I knew it would be the ââ¬Å"thing to doâ⬠, I opposed what culture was telling me was okay. I chose not to go with the crowd and for that, I enjoyed my high school experience in my own way. I was taught by my parents the consequences of right and wrong and knew that making such choices were wrong for me which was instilled in me through the nurture part of my makeup. God says Train up a child in the way in which he should go (Prov. 22:6) which must have been a very important verse as I was growing up. My parents and grandparents have always been influential in making me a self-respecting, confident adult who can make conscious decisions on my own. History The nature versus nurture debate first began in the 13th century in France. Our genes give us our internal imprint that tell us what color our eyes are, how tall we will be, and how big our feet will be. Our genetic structure makes us unique. Psychological influences refer to our beliefs, feelings, and expectations of life experiences. These characteristics are based on the ââ¬Å"gene-environment interactionâ⬠and can give us ââ¬Å"responses evoked by our own temperament, gender, etc. â⬠(Myers, pg. 167). Finally, social-cultural influences are how society influences our development. These can come from our parents, friends, culture, and even gender. A personââ¬â¢s social-cultural influences can cause them to see people differently than they normally would. I could see this being the state where racism is influenced. Unfortunately, I see this becoming a bigger influencing factor in the years ahead and we, as a society, have many different cultural groups in our everyday lives. Conclusion In conclusion, the nature versus nurture debate can take on many different forms in how it is perceived. One could see that they are who they are based on their heredity while another could see it from an environmental viewpoint.
Saturday, September 21, 2019
Building an Ethical Organization Essay Example for Free
Building an Ethical Organization Essay When building an organization the main focus will be to help the public with specific needs. We will have to build the business on ethics and human service laws. The main goal is to help those in need and do this with respect and caring. There are many ways to run an organization and we need to choose the right services to meet the needs in the community we serve. The organization is for the help for people living with Alzheimerââ¬â¢s and the people that love them. We will be there to offer services for the person suffering from the disease and their families. The services offered will be assistance at home, a live in if necessary, counseling for the family, and client, and a residential home. Services include shopping, sitting when a day out might be needed. We will offer a class to help the family understand the disease and its progression, and have group counseling to help them support each other. This is a not for profit organization. Helping people should be top priority over making money. Human services are about helping the people in our communities in need of services. The mission statement: To support and develop programs through education to teach how to live with the daily changes, and to strengthen family ties. We have to let them know they can count on us for understanding and support. This will support the ethical system by keeping the respect and dignity of our clients, supporting them in their time of need, and giving the famil y the support that is needed to face the day-to-day heartache that comes with watching your loved one suffer. The message that this mission statement will put out in the community is we will be there for them. We will not turn them away when the need is there. We have let the community know they can count on us to provide the necessary services to their loved ones, and also help them through a difficult time. Coping with this disease is not an easy thing to do. The services that will be provided will help the families understandà that this does not have to be a burden, and will help them to know that their loved one is getting the necessary care and love to help them in the progression of this disease. Having an ethical leader in the organization will help to have ethical social workers. Having a leader that is respected and trusted in the community will benefit the organization as well as the community and clients. The organization is only as good as its leaders. Our values in the organization will be: Commitment to the public, commitment to superior service and to maintain the publicâ⠬â¢s trust, and respect. Having empathy for our clients and their families, dignity and self-worth of all that seek help, and the importance of human relationships. Respecting the diversity of our clients and their families at all times, and we will not discriminate against anyone for any reason. Treating our clients with the dignity and respect that every human being is entitled to is what can be expected when they walk through the door. This helps support the vision that the organization has for its future. To have our clients and their families living with dignity and having control over a terrible disease, to have the community see and know that our clients receive the services to have as happy a life as possible. The staff will be highly trained in the area of Alzheimerââ¬â¢s to assist, and care for our clients, and be there to help the families with all the means available to the organization. We can put all this into action within the organization, and this will benefit the clients and community as well as the employees. We need an ethical leader who can set an example for the employees. The leader will need to always show their leadership with the ethics that we want to have within the organization. This will help teach the employees how to behave and always keep the mission in mind and work toward the vision that the organization has for the community and the clients. Abiding by the ethics laws and the hum an service laws will help with the code of conduct that is expected of all employees in the organization. According to Statement of values and code of ethics for nonprofit and philanthropic organizations (2004) ââ¬Å"going through the process with the board and staff also begins to infuse into the culture of the organization recognition of how important it is to address issues of values and ethics on an ongoing basisâ⬠. All the employees need to be involved with the process so they fully understand what is expected of their behavior in the organization every day. When difficult situations arise with clients allà employees will handle the situation the same way, and make sure that the client has their needs met in an ethical and respectful way. Social workers have a code of ethics that are an important part of the job. According to NASW (2013) ââ¬Å"social workers have an ethical responsibility to their clients, self-determination, competence, social diversity, privacy and confidentialityâ⬠. All laws will be posted around the organization so they will be seen daily and keep the mission in the minds of the employees daily. Our clients will respect the organization and the employees for always using ethical conduct and fairness when it concerns helping them find the right services that work. If more services are needed than we have to offer the clients they can have peace knowing they will be sent to an ethical place to have the services needed that will work together with what we offer the clients. When a social worker in the organizati on as not conducted themselves in an ethical way, and has caused problems will be reprimanded. The clientââ¬â¢s dignity comes first in the organization. Dealing with a disease that has no cure is devastating to the family, and it is a horrific disease for the client to deal with. Having caring people treating them with love and respect makes a big difference in their world. Offering as much assistance as we can by the programs we have and services we offer will make a big difference in their day-to-day routine. Letting them know they are not alone, and we will be there to make it a bit easier to get through. References: Statement of values and code of ethics for nonprofit and philanthropic organizations. (2004). Retrieved from http://www.ncdsv.org/images/ NASW. (2013). Retrieved from http://www.socialworkers.org/pubs/cod
Friday, September 20, 2019
Market Environment and Structure of Automobile Industry
Market Environment and Structure of Automobile Industry 1.1. Market Environment The market environment is the combination of actors and forces that affect an organisations capability to operate its operations effectively in order to provide its products and services to its customers. (Jobber 2004) According to Jobber (2004) these forces can be classified into internal or external environment and these will act in accordance with the companys position in the market as shown in appendix A. As this analysis is about the automobile industry and companies operating within this industry are also facing these forces. Some of these factors are explored later on in this report. 1.2. Market Structure Chris Britton (2003) defines market structure as the amount of competition that exists between the rivalry organisations. According to him the market structure can be perfection competition; monopolistic competition; oligopoly; or monopoly depending on the nature of business. As the automobile industry in not mainly dominated by one single firm and in different parts of world there are different market leaders. So, in bigger picture the global automobile industry is having an oligopolistic structure where many player are there to share profit and for competition. 1.3. Brief Profile of Automobile Industry The automotive industry is the industry involved in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, and sale of motor vehicles. According to Datamonitor (2009), more than 40 million cars were sold across the globe which means the market shrunk by 5.3% as compared to 2007. As Europe is biggest consumer of new cars with 42% while Asia-Pacific and America accounts for 32% and 26% respectively (Datamonitor 2009). The plunge in the consumption of new cars is caused by the recent recession and the motor crises which are widely affecting the auto industry. Meanwhile the rising fuel prices and increasing costs of raw material are another great concern for the manufacturer in order to survive in this turbulent atmosphere. Before the global crises the US market which was the biggest consumer of light vehicles was dominated by the big three GM, Chrysler and Ford, while in Europe equal competition was seen among few companies (Ford, Volkswagen, and BMW) and Asian market was mainly dominated by the Toyota. In recent years the Toyota emerged as a big threat for US companies in the international market through its hybrid technology and is giving tough competition. The Tata has launched the world cheapest car Nano in 2009, India is the focus of all major car manufacturers due to its consumption of small cars and it is also described as For small car, India is the centre of the Universe by Alan Mulally, Ford President and CEO (Business Today Sep 2009). 2.0 Looking at Company (Ford) 2.1. Company (Ford Motor ) Profile Ford Motor Company is a globally recognized company based in United States and it operates across the globe in six continents with its four brands (Ford, Mercury, Lincoln and Volvo). It operates primarily through its automotive business and secondarily through its financial services. Its automotive sector consists of manufacture, design, sale service of small vehicles and large trucks, development and spare parts. The financial services are restricted to insurance and vehicle related finance and leasing. According to auto evolution (Dec 2009) ford was the only one to survive among the three US car manufacturers without any aid or government help and not only survived but also pocketed the $1 billion net income in the third quarter of 2009. Ford is known for its innovative design and technology which is gained through its reverse engineering methodology. The chairman of Ford, Bill Ford is following a simple strategy which is, Our vision for the future is simple: We want to build great products, a strong business, and a better world. (Ford.com) 2.2. History of Company (Ford) Ford Motor Company was founded in US state Michigan in 1903 by an automotive pioneer Henry Ford which was first of its kind in the auto industry. The Model T developed in 1908 and resulted in the sales of over 15 million units. By the 1920s it has captured the 50% of the market share. After going into public in 1956, the company has reached the global market with significant success. 3.0 Macroeconomic Analysis of Ford (Pest Analysis) According to Ian Worthington (2003) organisations operates their operations in an economic environment which is shaped by these operational activities. There are number of factors that influence the decisions of a business organisation although these are not under the control of that particular organisation. These factors can be political, social, economical or technological. These factors have the wider influence on the Fords decision making as Ford is also a business organisation which operates through its auto manufacturing operations and financial operations. How these factors influence Fords strategies is discussed below: Political Aspects Ford Motor Company operates in 50 different countries so it has to fulfil the legal and safety requirements in accordance with their rules and regulations. Economic Aspects Social Aspects Technological Aspects 4.0 Micro-Environment Analysis of Ford (Swot Analysis) 4.1. Strengths to Build Upon Strong Engineering and Design Capability The one of the reason behind the success of Ford is its strong design and engineering capabilities. Ford every new depend on the success of its RD projects which are run through 50 engineering and design centre which are located in many countries across the globe. According to Datamonitor (2008) Ford launched Blind Spot Mirror in its cars in order to remove hazards and build the more traffic views for drivers. Ford also introduced the accident-assistance feature in coordination with the National Emergency Number Association (NENA) in order to improve the emergency service in the same year. This shows how technology and innovation matters at Fords in order to remain competitive in the market High Employee Productivity Ford has employed a strong work force that contributes towards the company operations in order to achieve its goals. It has recorded higher revenue per employer ($1.8m) in 2008 as compared to its rivals (GM, Toyota, Honda, and Chrysler) its 3 times more and this simply because of the training and efficiency achieved by its employees. Fords Extensive Dealers The dealer network acquired by Ford is wide spread in all parts of world especially in rural areas represents Ford through its range of products that included Ford, Mercury, Lincoln and Volvo. 4.2. Weaknesses to Overcome Poor Financial Performance Ford didnt perform very well in FY2008 as compared to 2007 and its income statement seen a decline of 15.3% (Table 4 Appendix D) which was widely due to the recession and lower revenues of Jaguar and Land Rover. The Jaguar and Land Rover was sold later that year in order to control companys financial situation and to regain the investors trust. Sluggish Performance of Company The best performing markets of the world for Ford saw a steep decline in 2008. North-America that accounts for almost half of the companys revenue saw downfall of nearly 24% according to Datamonitor (2009), other parts of world saw the same picture. Poor Cash Flows According to Datamonitor (2009) Fords cash flow declined badly endangering companys position at one stage. Although it came out of recession without the US Governments help but it shows ineffective cash management by the company. So, Ford still need to do a lot in order to gain its pre 2007 state. 4.3. Opportunities to Exploit Potential Asian Market Everybody is aware of India and Chinas importance as a developing market for small sized vehicle and it is also mentioned by Fords CEO Alan Mulally in one his interview as For small car, India is the centre of the Universe.(Business Today Sep. 2009) According to Market Watch (2009) in 2008 the Chinese new car market reached $98 billion which grew by 14% which is expected to grow to $155 billion by 2013. On the other hand India is also rising as a strong economy which means consumption of more vehicles. This is a potential opportunity for Fords to capture this part of world through its strong presence in the market and through its high class manufacturing capabilities. Hybrid, Electric and Hydrogen Vehicles The high fuel price increased the demand for fuel efficient vehicles and as everybody is switching to hybrid cars which means next few years are vital for Ford in order to cope the demands of hybrid vehicles. The worldwide demand for hybrid vehicle is 800,000 units in 2009 and is estimated to grow at 4.5 million units by 2013 (Market Watch 2009) In 2012 Ford is expecting to launch in third generation of hybrid vehicles including a plug in version (Ford.com). Also there is significant opportunity to invest in electric and hydrogen vehicles which seems to be next car after the hybrid cars. 4.4. Threats to Overcome Intense Competition Ford is having intense competition from its rivals especially Toyota which is trying to get a grip on US market. Another factor behind this competition is increasing fuel and raw material prices which are giving hard time to keep the production cost low and prices competitive Recession Although economists are saying that the recession is over but actually not for the auto industry as more people are losing jobs, revenues are getting lower and more companies look towards government help in order to survive. Ford was the only company among the big three in US that survived without the bailout but recession did affect its cash flows. 5.0 Porters Five Forces Model for Ford 5.1. Bargaining Power of Suppliers The automobile industry has a huge supply market which relies on few car makers to sell their products in order to survive in the competitive market. The key inputs required by the manufacturer are not much differentiated by the other supplier and it shows the little switching costs and wider choice of supply. This shows a little power in the hands of supplier but the only thing strengths the power of supplier is the quality of their products which give them a little edge on car manufacturers but overall, supplier holds moderate powers over their buyers. 5.2. Bargaining Power of Customers Before the recession auto crises the market was dominated by the few players and people were mainly relying on local firms mainly in the US with the choice of few, but as the international firms made their way into the global market (Toyota Honda in US) the customers start getting more choices. People dont often buy a car neither buy them in bulk which shows a little or no power in terms of bargaining and on top the strong brand names in the market even further weakens their power. There is huge potential market for new cars, although there is a little switching cost but consumers are price sensitive and brand conscious too, therefore, this results in reducing their bargaining power. There is another factor affecting their power is polypsony nature of market which means large number of buyers with little power to influence the price. All these factors show a moderate power in hand of customer. 5.3. Threat of New Entrants North-American seems to be the heaven for the big three until the arrival of Honda into US market and saw a plunge into the share of US manufacturers. Although it is still believed that to get entrance into the auto industry needs not only the large amount of capital but also the innovative engineering and technology. Due to this factor it is hard seen that a new player emerged into the market. Recent recession also gives the assurance of no more new arrival in the auto industry for a while. Even it has forced few companies to leave the business and many others to tumble. Therefore, it clearly shows the little or no threat to the existing market. 5.4. Threat of Substitutes Although there is no alternative of having your own ride but due to increasing fuel prices, job losses, and increasing car prices are forcing people to move towards the cheaper transport alternatives. Mainly used cars, public transport and somehow cycles are appearing as potential threat for the auto industry. Although these methods are less convenient but due to the recession customer are getting more and more conscious towards money saving and cutting costs. Overall, it shows the strong threat of substitute at least for time being. 5.5. Competitive Rivalry between Existing Players The auto industry is highly competitive in terms of return on investments and it is considered as an oligopoly market. In the past this competition wasnt exactly about the prices of cars but only to capture more market share through the innovative design and technology. Most of the firms tried to avoid price based competition but now its comes to the survival of business which lead towards the price war between rivals and it also resulted towards the lower profit margins. Even this competition has intensified; firms now offer longer warranties, lower interest rates and better after sale support in order to attract more customers. So, this results as the strong market competition. According to Ebsco (2009) the auto industry is occupied by small number of companies who having a battle of survival. Although there is a little threat of new entrants in the market but the competition among the existing firms is quite intensive. All the other forces are either week or moderate apart from the one (Threat of Substitutes) which can impose danger for a time being. The market has changed its shape due to the recession and many firms including GM is having a tough time and others are having a loss or less profit but there are still opportunities in the market to grow and bounce back. 6.0 Strategies 7.0 Conclusion References http://www.autoevolution.com/news/2009-auto-industry-wrap-up-14948.html#Ford http://www.ford .com business today 6 sep 2009 N Madhavan (Alan Mulally Interview) Auto Sales: Sales and Share of Total Market by Manufacturer, Wall Street Journal Markets Data Center, Nov. 3, 2008 http://bigthreeauto.procon.org/#Chart
Thursday, September 19, 2019
Captain Murderer Essay -- English Literature
Captain Murderer Captain Murderer was written in the 1800ââ¬â¢s by Charles Dickens. In this essay I intend to write about exploring character structure, language, social content and themes. Captain Murderer was described as an evil character by the narrator. His position in society was great he was let into the best of parties. ââ¬ËThe first diabolical character who intruded himself on my peaceful youth was a certain Captain Murdererââ¬â¢ The word diabolical comes from the Latin word Diablo which means devil. He was let into the best of parties and a desirable husband. Charles Dickens introduces Captain Murderer successfully as an evil character by the language he uses. He marries people who have a lot of money because after he kills them he inherits their money. Captain Murderer has a habit of killing his wives who have a lot of money. Charles Dickens shows the reader the ritual that Captain Murderer undertakes with each new wife. These actions are typical of a serial killer. He first takes them out on dates in a coach and six and marries them in a coach and twelve. ââ¬ËHe made love in a coach and six, and married in a coach and twelveââ¬â¢ He then has his teeth filed sharp, a month and a day before the murder. He then tells her to make a pastry of a pie, if she doesnââ¬â¢t know how to make one he then teaches her. She asks him what is the filling to be. ââ¬ËDear Captain Murderer I see no meatââ¬â¢ He replies ââ¬ËLook in the glassââ¬â¢ He chops of her head and puts her in the pie, he salts her, peppers her, and sends it to the bakers then eats it and picks the bones. Captain Murderer follows the structure of a childrenââ¬â¢s story. This is interesting as the original idea came from Charles Dickens nurse who would... ...uses language we no longer use. E.g. diabolical, matrimony and immense. This shows that the story was written in the 1800ââ¬â¢s. Charles Dickens successfully uses language to show that the story was written a long time ago. The theme of this story is based on a murderer who follows his own ritual to kill and eat his wives. And then one sister of twins sacrifices her life for revenge. ââ¬ËBefore she rolled out the paste she had taken a deadly poison of a most awful character.ââ¬â¢ The twin is not a murderer, we feel that Captain Murderers death has been justified. Charles Dickens successfully show the reader the moral of the story instantly at the brink of revenge with a typical childrenââ¬â¢s story moral that good wins over evil. Dickens uses various details from this fairy tale genre to create this dark tale .however it is not simply a strong fairy tale.
Wednesday, September 18, 2019
Women Conform More than Men Essay -- Conformity Psychology Gender Role
Women Conform More than Men Studies over the years have shown a higher rate of conformity among women than men. Psychologists have attributed this difference to many areas, such as personality traits, differing views of conformity, social status, and situational forces. The following research and studies illustrate the findings which confirm this hypothesis. Personality Traits of Men vs. Women According to Eagley, Wood, and Fishbaugh (1981), women are more concerned than men about the quality of interpersonal relationships. Women take greater responsibility for establishing and maintaining interpersonal bonds, whereas men do not. Also, women are more empathetic and more accurate at decoding nonverbal communication than males. Male gender roles also claim that men should remain independent and not agree closely with others, while it is seen as acceptable for women to conform to group behaviors. According to the studies by Maslach, Santee, and Wade (1987), part of the masculine gender role is to be independent and assertive, therefore leading males to conform less. At the same time, they stated that part of the feminine role involves being sensitive to others, therefore leading to conformity to maintain harmony. These contrasting personality traits found in men and women set a solid foundation for their conforming or nonconforming behaviors. Male vs. Female Views on Conformity A study completed by Santee and Jackson (1982) helped determine that females assess conformity as a more positive, self-defining act than males do. Females are seen as being more sensitive to others, and therefore conform more to keep a state of peace. Males, on the other hand, are more likely to deviate from a group ... ...Personality and Social Psychology, 40(2), 384-394. Johnson, R. A., & Schulman, G. I. (1989). Gender Role Composition and Role Entrapment in Decision-Making Groups. Gender and Society, 3(3), 355-372. Maslach, C., Santee, R. T., & Wade, C. (1987). Individuation, Gender Role, and Dissent: Personality Mediators of Situational Forces. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 53(6), 1088-1093. Santee, R.T., & Jackson, S.E. (1882). Identity Implications of Conformity: Sex Differences in Normative and Attributional Judgements. Social Psychology Quarterly, 45(2), 121-125. Workman, J.E., & Johnson, K.K.P. (1994). Effects of Conformity and Nonconformity to Gender-Role Expectations for Dress: Teachers Versus Students. Adolescence, 29(113), 207-221.
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